Prediction-market and copy-strategy semantics

Market identity

A prediction market is identified by event, market, outcome, token representation and resolution-rule revision. Similar wording does not imply identical deadlines, evidence sources or voiding conditions.

Quotes retain order-book time, price side, size, fees and settlement convention. Forecast probabilities refer to the same outcome definition; otherwise a numerical comparison can join different events under one label.

Binary-outcome expected value

For a simple binary claim with unit payout on yes and zero on no, this reduces to p−ask−costs. p is the independently specified estimated probability, not automatically the displayed midpoint. Include contract-specific resolution conditions, executable depth and costs; do not apply this binary formula to a different payoff structure.

Copy-strategy policy

Illustrative policy values, not default product settings or a recommended strategy. The follower needs its own budget, current quote and authority.

{
  "strategy_revision": "copy-example-r1",
  "leader_ref": "observed_account_example",
  "mode": "paper",
  "max_signal_age_seconds": 30,
  "max_price_drift_bps": 100,
  "max_market_exposure_bps": 500,
  "sizing": "fixed_follower_budget",
  "exit_rule": "reduce_only_on_confirmed_leader_reduction"
}

Observation-to-action causality

A leader fill becomes observable after the leader’s execution. The follower faces its own price, liquidity and remaining time. Leader actions are deduplicated by source identity; freshness, exposure and current-price constraints determine admission of an independent follower proposal.

A mirrored exit reduces the follower’s attributable position without opening a short or increasing exposure. Skips, partial fills and rejections remain in history. Public-wallet activity can omit off-chain positions and funding, so its observed P&L does not establish total return on capital.

Resolution and evaluation

Outcome state follows the market’s unresolved, disputed and finalized lifecycle. Forecasts retain the outcome definition and rule revision that applied when they were issued. Calibration uses the resolved event, while strategy P&L also includes entry price, costs, fill state and capital commitments.

Ineligible, skipped and unfilled follower actions remain in strategy diagnostics. Their absence from filled-order P&L does not remove them from the population of attempted decisions.

Copy latency and admissibility

Copying introduces an observation delay after the leader’s fill. The follower’s decision uses its own current quote, remaining market time, liquidity and capital constraints. Leader profitability is therefore not a sufficient statistic for follower expected value.

A follower policy defines an admissible region around the observed action: maximum age, price deviation, exposure and per-action budget. Outside that region, the action is skipped and the reason remains in the strategy history. Exits reduce the follower’s attributable position and cannot create a new short merely because the leader closed a larger exposure.

Follower price deviation

Both prices use the same outcome token, side and quote convention. The deviation bound measures distance from the observed leader price; it does not establish profitability. Costs, resolution risk and executable depth enter the follower’s separate evaluation. The leader price is strictly positive. At or near zero, this relative ratio is undefined or highly sensitive; an absolute price-difference bound is a separate policy constraint.